Periodically we publish Market Updates designed to inform investors about current market conditions.  We tend to only release these when markets turmoil or reach apparent inflection points or experience increased volatility, causing concern. This approach allows us to provide information to investors but avoid becoming 'white noise' from publishing too frequently.  

Central bank intervention and steadily uptrending markets have reduced the frequency of Updates (which has been good news!).  But ... at some point, those tricks may no longer work.  True.

Our Quarterly Letters can be found below, along with any Market Updates sent in between letters.  For archived Updates and/or copies of our detailed Quarterly Letters which cover the evolution of critical issues affecting today's markets and the future of your investments, please call us or e-mail us at


[Q1 2022 Letter here when site is fixed]

Q1 was a brutal confirmation that the asset markets don't levitate without the Fed stealing more money from the future.  Moreover, several bogeymen have been pulled forth, spicing some new hysteria into the void created by the fading Covid hysteria.  We seem to be unable to escape for even a short month or two without a new batch of it served up.  The public is beginning to awaken to the rampant corruption throughout major US institutions, and the unending trick of throwing hysteria and new money at everything.  The latest chapter, Ukraine/Russia, obscures the fact that Ukraine long ago became a prime location for laundering aid back into the pockets of corrupt US politicians and their families.  We first wrote about that in our Q1 2014 letter, which can be found here.  Same issues, same people, Act 2. 

[Q4 2021 Letter here when site is fixed]

Year end followed the customary 'Santa Rally' although largely on the back of the biggest stocks.  It is a bit thin underneath.  The Fed announced it would dial back its money printing escapades and hike interest rates to combat the inflation that their relentless money printing created in the first place.  In Q4 2018, the Fed proved it could not raise rates nor cease money printing without asset prices getting knocked down, a simple truthful revelation of the dependencies they've caused that require constant infusion of cheap money, with new money piled on top of that.  We'll see how it plays out, skeptical of their ability to pull it off.


The topics we have written about since the Fed's wild monetary experiments were unleashed in 2009 may become quite important in the days ahead.  The Fed has boxed itself into a corner, and its diving credibility (note conflicted behaviors of its own Fed presidents trading stocks for their own accounts) joins the smashed credibility of Congress, government agencies, and now even the electoral process.  Red Flags abound everywhere for investors.  With a growing chorus of high-integrity advisors suggesting 'the top is in', we ponder what would be happening in markets if the Fed's relenteless money printing was not hiding so many undesirable things via distorted market values!

Q2 saw more central bank 'support' which caused (despite their completely disingenous denials) inflation across the board.  Prices of goods and services exploded. Wall Street gamed many commodities in the 'paper markets' pushing items like lumber through the roof, with house prices following suit.  While some item subsequently retreated from spiked valuations, costs that look anything but 'transitory' jumped for average Americans.  Market valuations are historically off the charts.  The remainder of the year will be telling as the Fed determines if it can stop printing $120Billion every month without a major problem in markets. Our Q2 letter covers all of the above.

In the spirit of Twelve Days of Christmas comes Twelve Days of Charts ... well, a few of them. Markets are stretched to the upside by historic levels.  That said, money-printing is at historic levels so perhaps it can continue without correction.  History suggests however that these levels do just that.  Have a look and call us if we can revisit your strategy with you!

Unprecedented money-printing rules the day (of course).  As the economy attempts to work its way out of virus-world many uncertainties remain.  The virus will take us where it does, the economic realities will depend on lock-down policies, etc.  In some regard, this looks a lot like the post-Great Depression days where opposite public proclamations, the middle class was destroyed ... that is covered in our most recommended reading 'The Fruits of Graft' by Wayne Jett.  You can find it in the Book section on our main page.


The Fed's announcement today indicates they'll be 'buying' only $9 Billion per day for the next two weeks.  So ... all is good (if you don't care about the country's debt).  Meanwhile, they've knocked so many historic correlations out of whack its impossible to list them.  Here's a look at one ...  

Bear Market Rallies ALWAYS convince investors the worst is past and the coast is clear for sunny skies ahead ... same intro as in Q2, isn't it?  Same situation!!  This market rally can be legitmately attributed all to central bank money printing - the generation of new dollars (future debt) has exploded.  It is directly in line with prior episodes in the history books.  We recommend all investors understand this history and make decisions accordingly.

Bear Market Rallies ALWAYS convince investors the worst is past and the coast is clear for sunny skies ahead ... then they roll over.  Is this one?  That has yet to be determined. With unprecedented money printing, bail-outs for Main Street this time too (to some degree) and the worst of the virus scare behind us (hopefully), the worst may indeed be over.  Only time will tell.  Importantly, markets rallied to the upper levels of prior Bear Markets on the 29th.  We will have to see what is in store, but investors that may need to access capital near term should be aware of where we are and how the various asset classes work.  Our Update explains ...



As advisor Peter Schiff said on a recent interview "$500 Billion here, $500 Billion there, pretty soon you're talking about REAL money!  Except ... it's not ... its insta-money, invented out of thin air.  We have had numerous clients ask recently, 'how do they do that, don't we have to pay for it some day?!'.  The answer of course is yes, the question is when.  We have a double-edged sword these days, with investors praying for asset prices to go back up, many of whom are retirement plan participants who sadly may need to top into retirement accounts to make it through today's world of the unknown.  We hope the rally resumes, but all investors need to have their eyes wide open to the possibility it does not.  A look at Q1 and thoughts about the days ahead is included in the Q1 letter, and yes, it is still nuts.




Well, here we go again!  Many indices hit or are close to Bear Market Territory, -20% from their highs, and the 'President's Working Group' has been summoned to the White House to, by the looks of it, rescue markets like they did last on Christmas Eve 2018.  Will it work this time?  We'll see.  Either way, this Update is a timely story upon which every investor should reflect as they determine the appropriate strategy for them.


A wild week that saw 3% to 4% swings almost daily, up/down/up/down showcases markets are swinging between a sure slowdown in corporate revenue and earnings and the central banks' tricks of printing (destroying) more dollars that will be used to buy falling stocks and prevent them from sliding further.  Money printing absurdly must be used non-stop to keep the entire pension and personal wealth pyramid from collapsing.  Have a look how 'markets' historically perform after 'Emergency Rate Cuts' like the one we received on March 3rd ...


Printing money cures all, right?  Apparently not.  The Coronavirus is no matter to take lightly, as in addition to the tragic human toll it has taken, it has shuttered factories, disrupted supply chains which in turn will disrupt manufacturing, and forced people to stay at home out of fear for their own safety.  It will have a noteworthy negative impact on economic activity and thus revenues, earnings, and almost assuredly asset prices.  Central banks may try to artificially boost or support prices ... but ... their mask is coming off.  Odds are reasonable that February 20th was a top of some form at least for a little while. Time will tell.

Once again, Central Bank money-printing has hidden problems by bailing out financial firm troublemakers, simultaneously giving them hundreds of billions of dollars to play with.  And again, this hides real problems created by the central bank policies themselves.  As stocks relentlessly rise, volatility dropped through the floor and seemingly unfound confidence has prompted investors to pile into stocks and other assets. As our letter leads off ... 'This Is Insane'.  We use the term to reference the work of another advisor we respect, but we fully agree.  Caution is prudent.


Q3 ended with several indices in the neighborhood of all-time highs, but not everybody was playing along.  Some early warning signs perhaps manifested in small company stocks which drifted lower from Labor Day through quarter end.  The arrival of spooky October saw them cliff-dive, and the big company indices followed suit.  As we have pointed out for years, central banks run the show, not governments nor politicians, and the central banks are reversing everything they have done for the past decade's bail-out bonanza.  Will we be able to keep the game going without zero percent / seven year car loans?  We will soon see.  Check out this quarter's letter, not to glimpse at the October carnage, but to revisit what's important ... that stuff behind the curtain.  Caution rules here.


Rock On!  Since earnings growth returned in Q3 2017 (after 7 consecutive quarters of shrinking earnings ... which you would never know from watching the 'supported' stock markets), Q1 2018 are expected to explode higher ... with estimates ranging from 16% to 20% growth.  However, volatility has returned in Q1, and with major indices largely flat by the end of the quarter, a lot was going on ... with both Currency Wars and real wars potentially brewing.  China ratched up the stakes big-time, launching a Petro-Yuan threat to the U.S. (Petro) Dollar.  Tune in to it all, the good, the bad and the ugly ... right here:


Trains, planes and battleships!!  Even pictures of a full blown Armada, complete with aircraft carriers, destroyers and just about every type of ship in the Navy cannot stop this Bull train it would seem.  We are eight years from the ‘bottom’ in this market rally, and nine years into this ‘credit cycle’ … long in the tooth by all measures.  Yet, sentiment has soared, the S&P 500 may be about to break an eight quarter losing streak of earnings declines (yes, they’ve been going down), and the private sector is hiring left and right.

Can a rally continue in such an environment?  Absolutely.  What is the key?  Central banks … just as it has been for the past eight years.  But, the Federal Reserve is now raising interest rates, an act that has put the brakes on every rally that has preceded this one.  Read our Q1 Letter and get a glimpse of what to monitor to assess the health of any continued rally:



The Comments that accompanied our 'Post-Election' Update (below) were dead-on. So far, the central banks (not ours) have continued pumping vast sums of money into asset markets, and the Fed has accommodated Trump by not yet raising interest rates.  That may change on March 15th ... even though the Atlanta Fed is projecting a weak 1.2% GDP estimate for Q1.  There is a grand disconnect between stock market hopium, and actual economic activity however. 

Many roadblocks lay ahead, however, conveniently placed by the prior administration in spots that would allow for problematic confrontations?  Will the Fed play its hand the same as it did over the past eight years?  How will it all end?  While nobody can know for sure, a peek under the hood suggests Wall Street may have some ideas.  Have a look:



Is the rally for year end for real?  Perhaps, it depends!  Certainly the swamp has not been drained whatsoever as evidenced by the Wall Street power players occupying key positions in the financial and economic slots.  Is that a good thing or a bad thing?  Can Trump's policies really get the economy going once again?  Or ... is he just being set up to be Herbert Hoover the 2nd?  Enjoy a read in our Q2 Letter!



Thank goodness the election season is over!  Now the question remains 'what is an investor to do?'  That question, and its answer, are exactly as we framed in our Q3 letter below.  It depends on your view of the Fed's 1) willingness and 2) ability to manipulate money and markets.  If you believe they will and that they can do so successfully, then the answer likely resides in observing where a Trump administration will spend money: defense and infrastructure. 

There is also the possibility the Fed does not support a Trump agenda.  They've passed on ALL interest rate hike opportunities, implementing only one in December 2015, kicking off 'the worst start to a year every in January 2017.  If they start to get aggressive with their hikes, especially in the face of weakening data, you'll know just how 'neutral' they really are.  We cover all of this fun stuff in more detail in today's Market Update: 



This Q3 Letter should serve as a pre-election primer.  We have no interest in influencing anyone's voting intentions.  We do, however, intend to request that every INVESTOR understand how 2016, and this election cycle in particular, have ripped back the curtain on the utter corruption in Washington and on Wall Street.  It is in plain daylight if you look for it, but it will be deliberately hidden from you if you waste your time watching mainstreet media as they are deeply imbedded in the corruption.  Why would anyone think such a thing?  The answer resides in recent emails to and from the DNC released by Wikileaks have exposed the intent to 'produce an unaware and compliant citizenry'.  That's you.

Simultaneously, the Fed at last uttered the idea they may have to print money and buy equities if the economic system they themselves ruined cannot lift off.  Meanwhile, the biggest proponent of printing money', Nobel Prize Winner and NYT Columnist Paul Krugman, just stated the U.S. is nearing the status of 'failed state'. Yup. Perhaps he should look in the mirror at who precisely has caused it?

Think about those issue as you consider your risk tolerance to this equity 'market'. 

You can read about them in full detail in our quarterly letter below:



This Quarter's Letter may be construed as essentially a call to action for investors in tune with their Cognitive Dissonance - the disconnect between their reality versus what they see on television and receive as official narratives from leaders in the government and the financial world.  We see the equity market as having been added by the central  banks to the heap of destroyed formerly 'free markets'.  With the central banks piling $180+ billion of new money into markets every month to prop up bankrupt countries across the globe, the risks are higher than we have ever seen them. This quarter's letter lays it on the line as it showcases broken correlations (like corporate earnings and homeownership steadily declining as stocks are pumped).  It also suggests that each investor should here and now categorize themselves properly, then revisit their allocations.  A bit of a dark read (since that is the term of the day), but an honest one.  We trust you will find it helpful.



We don't usually post so frequently, but the markets have entered 'Ludicrous Speed' (credit to that cult following movie favorite 'Space Balls').  The Central Bank (CB) actions have AGAIN replaced all normal buyers, using new money created out of thin air to now buy stocks too.  It is apparently not enough to stomp interest rates to zero (and to negative territory in Europe and Japan), now markets must be met with endless 'liquidity' to prevent even modest declines.  Does this mean stocks will never go down unless CB's allow it?  Are all traditional metrics gone?  Should all investors be all-in?  Or ... might this end as all similar efforts in history have heretofore ... with failure?  Only time will tell, but let's examine it further, so at least the risks are known ... shall we?



The Summer Games referenced below are running full tilt!  The Central Banks bailed out Q2 just like they bailed out Q1.  'No down allowed' seems to be their only rule now!  Can they do it?  We doubt it.  Have a look at where we are now, what just happened and what July may well bring.



This year's 'Summer Games' as conducted by Wall Street will first focus on 'Brexit', the vote in the UK on whether or not to stay in the European Union, followed almost surely by US political convention shenanigans. Threats from the parasitical bankers and bureaucrats are out in full force warning UK citizens not to leave.  Polls about the vote are close enough that the bankers should be able to announce with less rigging than usual that the UK has decided to remain.  If they 'Brexit' market volatility will likey explode.  If they 'Bremain', (even though that simply means nothing has changed), a market rally above the 2-year range we've been in might be expected.  Either way, major downside ahead is a distinct possibility.



A low-volume rising Summer market has likely done its job again, creating a cozy feeling of sleepy complacency.  Despite the fact that S&P 500 earnings have rolled back to 2012 levels, the index itself is drifting back to the highs, utterly disconnected from reality, but firmly connected to the central bank money spigots.  We expected a strong rally from the February lows, and this one certainly has not disappointed. Central bank lunacy seems to have reached new levels, with a European Central Bank governor declaring to Bloomberg 'We are Magic People!'  We find ourselves almost out of words ... Meanwhile big-money institutions have been selling stocks for 18 straight weeks.  Sounds like good reason for a rally, right?  Read on for further detail.



Only a well-orchestrated headline like 'Worst Start to a Year Ever!' would be enough to provide the cover for the Fed to back off its fully-theatrical promise to raise rates FOUR times in 2016.  Sure enough, a 10% beat-down did just the trick, queuing the next headline 'Biggest Rally Since 1933!'  It only took FIVE central banks colluding and some of the wildest policy moves we have ever seen ... caution is in order in our world!



2015 ended a difficult year for Central Bankers and 2016 started far worse.  In country after country, financially repressive Central Bank tactics punish savers and reward borrowers.  They prove again and again to do nothing more than enrich those at the top (working closest to their treasury-robbing money-printing spigots) while  weakening the rest of the populace.  That's okay only if you're a Central Banker or a close ally, but if history is any guide, once everyone else gets tired of paying the price for the monetary malpractice it may not end very well.  

Is it any coincidence the global markets just happened to unravel right when the Fed tried to raise interest rates a measly 1/4%??  We think not.  Neither does former Fed President Richard Fisher.  Is it possible this market may be precisely what we have been warning about for eons, the 3rd Fed Bubble in 15 years?  The Last?  We shall see.  Have a read!   (Also, we suggest all investors go see 'The Big Short' as they consider how much risk they want to take while the FED and its cronies are in charge.) 


2016 may well shine the spotlight for most Americans on the only monetary system they have ever known.  History, however, shines a bright light on the follies of the bankers, their greed and the dangers they represent.  A journey to the Wizard of Oz did just the same in 1900.  Could a spin down the Yellow Brick Road enlighten investors about what may come??



The Almighty Omnipotent Fed has ruled!  'The economy is strong enough for a RATE HIKE!  (Too bad all the Wall Street banks instantly raised the rates they charge borrowers, but none raised the rate they pay savers.)  In the face of weakening economic data, the Fed HIKED rates, whereas they have consistently lowered them and printed more money under similar conditions.  Markets are selling off, BUT the pros started some time ago as our recent updates revealed.  The sell-off that immediately followed the Fed's decision is either setting up for a monster head-fake rally or a major decline ... but which one will it be?  Or will both ensue?  Either way, the Fed's credibility is almost surely shot.  Read on!



The STRONGEST monthly gain ever in terms of points!!  Is it real, or was Wall Street just running a 'Short Squeeze' before they roll the market over?  Well ... despite the rally, the condition underneath is actually WORSE than it was on August 12th when we warned everyone to look out below.



What a wild quarter ... and it may get wilder.  Our quarterly letter is now available. If you did not follow Q3 through our Market Updates, you may want to catch up.  This may be an important, even pivotal point in the markets. 



Carl Icahn echoes our sentiments on the Fed EXACTLY!  But, what does it mean or what is he up to?  What impact might it have on investors?



Did the Fiddling Fed botch its 'most important meeting EVER??!!' 



What a wild week!  Was this week's decline manufactured yet again to serve the Fed and Wall Street?! 



Here is our Update from 8/27 previewing the faux-rally that immediately followed:



Might we be looking at a strong AUGUST DECLINE?? (written before the decline):